NFL Betting – Beware of the Dogs

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Category: NFL

Created: Friday, 20 November 2015 09:22

When the Buffalo Bills upset the New York Jets on Thursday night – winning 22-17 as a 2.5-point road underdog, it triggered a crazy weekend of NFL action which saw a number of underdogs win outright.

Overall, underdogs went 12-2 against the pointspread, and an unbelievable 11-3 straight up. Backing all underdogs over the entire weekend against the pointspread would have resulted in a net profit of 7.7 units, while backing all underdogs over the entire weekend on the moneyline would have yielded an incredible 19.95 units of profit!

There were two incredible upsets this weekend, with both Green Bay and Cincinnati losing outright at home as double-digit favorites. The Packers lost their third game in a row as Detroit won in Lambeau Field for the first time since 1991.

Cincinnati was one of three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL entering this weekend, but scored only six points in a surprising loss against Houston. Those two upsets each returned a 4:1 or better payout on the moneyline.

In fact, if not for a late comeback by Tom Brady, the Patriots would have lost outright as well. Had the Giants hung on for the win, then the overall profit for backing underdogs blindly on the moneyline would have risen from 19.95 units of profit all the way to 23.8 units of profit.

So what does this mean going forward? For starters, according to most sportsbooks on the list,  certainly did well this past weekend, with the typical NFL Football bettor backing favorites both on the pointspread and on the moneyline. And when crazy betting trends emerge over the course of a weekend, the average sports bettor tends to overreact.

Chalk this weekend's online sports betting up to a fluke and nothing more. The two remaining undefeated teams – New England and Carolina – will still likely be asked to cover inflated lines going forward, but we don’t expect an overreaction to anyone else over the next few weeks. Green Bay, for example, is a one-point underdog on the road against a 7-2 Minnesota Vikings team this weekend. Obviously the online sportsbooks have not overreacted to the Packers current three-game losing streak and outright loss against the Lions on Sunday.

Other teams that had been undefeated for a while and lost recently (like the Bengals and Broncos) won’t have their lines inflated anymore. The Bengals are a road underdog at Arizona this Sunday night, while Denver now has a ton of questions on offense after quarterback Peyton Manning’s injury.

We’ll check in again with any unusual NFL Betting Trends that take place over the course of the season.

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