AFC Playoff Odds & Preview - Chiefs Must Reverse Earlier Result to Get Past Bills

Details: Category: NFL; Created: Sunday, 23 January 2022 22:51

AFC Playoff Odds and Preview The Kansas City Chiefs did not look very much like a team headed to a third straight Super Bowl when they played the Buffalo Bills earlier in the season. But things have changed now; the Chiefs have "cleaned up" some of the aspects of their game, and they are two steps away from getting the opportunity to vindicate themselves for last year's loss to Tampa Bay.

The Bills and Chiefs were both very impressive last week, as the cream is clearly rising to the top. And now they encounter each other in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs, kicking off at 6 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium.

In the AFC playoff odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Chiefs are the favorites:

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Buffalo Bills +1.5

Over 55 points -110
Under 55 points -110

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What to Expect

The Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 in last year's AFC title game, and Buffalo got some measure of payback in Week 5 of the regular season when they registered a 38-20 victory. Their offense was almost impossible to stop; Josh Allen averaged twelve yards per attempt on the way to 315 passing yards and three touchdowns. And the Bills racked up 436 yards.

Patrick Mahomes had a relatively difficult time putting big plays together. In fact, he averaged only five yards per attempt. Such a thing was happening a great deal to Mahomes in the early part of the season, when he was trying to force the ball down the field against defenses that played deep and were designed to thwart that kind of thing.

But since then, Mahomes has managed to adapt to those coverages. In the last ten games of the regular season, he had 23 touchdown passes with only four interceptions, compared to ten INT's that were thrown in the first eight games. According to WINKA, He had five TD passes and 404 yards in the wildcard round win over Pittsburgh last weekend.

Another thing that has changed is the ability of the Kansas City defense to stop people. In their last seven home games, they've allowed just 82 points (11.7 per game). The key for them is to neutralize the Bills' ground game, because that sets things up for Allen's play action. He has more pass attempts and yards out of play action than any other NFL quarterback.

Buffalo dismantled New England last week, winning 47-17 and scoring on their first seven drives against the league's #2 defense. They did not punt; they did not give up a sack and did not turn the ball over. The superlatives were endless.

And speaking of superlatives, the Bills' defense is #1 in the NFL in an awful lot of things. They have allowed the fewest points and yards per game, are the best at third down conversions (30.8%), have yielded the lowest yards-per-pass attempt (5.2) and completion percentage (56%), and also have the highest quarterback pressure rate in the league.

According to Pay Per Head Bookie News, that could be a lot to overcome for Kansas City. But they have a QB that improvises like no other, and no one should underestimate the improvement on defense. A lot of people have jumped all over this total, to the point where we think it's inflated. We'll move UNDER with this one.

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