NFL Betting – Breaking Down Super Bowl 50
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- Category: NFL
- Created: Sunday, 07 February 2016 21:19
As we count down the hours until Super Bowl 50 kicks off, there are two big stories emerging. The first is the details coming out about Peyton Manning’s alleged PED use, and the second – and most important for Super Bowl bettors – is what side the smart money has come in on for the big game.
Early betting came in heavy on the Carolina Panthers, with some online sportsbooks taking in as much as 90% of their action on the favorites. But the sharp action has since come in big on the underdog Broncos in the hours leading up to the big game, and online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.ag have dropped the Panthers to a 4.5-point favorite.
Back to Manning, it had been reported previously that he was one of several athletes linked to a PED scandal – one he vehemently denied. Now reports are surfacing that Manning sent two private investigators to question the story’s source. Not sure if this will really be a distraction for Manning, considering this is likely his final game played anyway and it’s hard to take focus off such a big game such as the Super Bowl.
As for the game itself, this is a high profile matchup featuring the highest-scoring offense in the league (Carolina) against the best defense in terms of yardage allowed (Denver). Both offenses and defense are certainly formidable, and while many consider the two defenses to be a “wash”, the question is whether or not Denver’s passing offense will out-perform Carolina’s rush offense.
Panthers have posted at least 100 yards rushing in every single one of their games this season. Broncos are only allowing 81 rushing yards per game on a very good 3.3 yards per carry average. Handicapping this specific matchup could be the difference between backing the Broncos or Panthers on Sunday.
Another big factor to consider is whether or not Carolina will be able to force turnovers. Panthers destroyed Seattle in the first half of their playoff matchup thanks to early turnovers, but Seattle mounted a huge comeback in the second half when they were able to hang on to the ball. Carolina’s defense never slowed down against Arizona in the NFC Championship Game, forcing seven turnovers against the Cardinals in their blowout victory.
On the other side of the ball, Denver will likely use a pass-heavy offensive game plan to combat Carolina’s blitz-heavy defensive scheme. If Manning can get rid of the ball quickly and take advantage of the holes left in the Panthers defense, then Denver will have an excellent chance of not only covering the spread, but winning the game outright. This is how New Orleans, NY Giants, and Atlanta (when they beat Carolina) played and found success in the regular season. If Manning can’t get rid of the ball quickly, then it could be a repeat of that Arizona game two weeks ago.
Good luck on Sunday, and look for our Super Bowl 50 Props article for more information on Sunday’s big game.
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