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MLB Baseball Betting Strategies – Betting on the Favorite

MLB Baseball Betting Strategies – Betting on the FavoriteWe are almost halfway thru the 2024 MLB season and things could not get more exciting for baseball fans. For baseball betting fans, the halfway point is when they have a better understanding of the rotation of each team and how they will fare for the rest of the season. Despite this knowledge, not everyone is able to make a profit from wagering on the MLB. Therefore, we present our MLB Baseball Betting Strategies on betting on the favorite.

First, what is a favorite team for sportsbooks? The favorite is the team that sportsbooks believe has the best chance of winning the game. For bettors, this is the team that gives you better betting odds of winnings but a worst return. Amateur gamblers often believe that betting on the favorite team to win is the best choice.

While it may seem like that at first, that is often not the case. This is because betting a baseball favorite on the favorite baseball team on the money line, the cost is not advantageous. Especially when the money line is at -200 or above as you have to risk more to win less. Thus, the profit margin is low and one loss could ruin it all. This is why so many people want to become a baseball bookie as the house sets the odds and have the advantage.

However, that is not the end of the story as there are and strategies to get around that.  

MLB Baseball Betting Strategies – Strategies for Betting on the Favorite

For gamblers, betting on baseball is a paradise because it is 2,430 games to bet on during the regular season. However, the number of games is not the only reason why they like it. It is also because of the uniqueness of their sports betting odds. Therefore, as long as baseball gamblers avoid common wagering mistakes, they can increase their profits.

Avoid Betting the Money Line on Popular Favorites

Avoid Betting the Money Line on Popular FavoritesIn other professional sports leagues like the NBA or NFL, the best teams often have a large winning percentage. Therefore, it is not uncommon to see teams with a 75% or even an 80% chance of winning the game. In fact, the best MLB team will often win 65%-70% of the time.

On the other hand, since MLB teams play many more games than NBA teams, they tend to lose more often. In Major League Baseball, a team that wins over 101 games is seen as an elite baseball team. Therefore, a baseball team with a 101-62 record would be seen as one of the league’s best with a 62.5% winning record.

However, Baseball is a very volatile sport. It is not unusual to see a popular teams lose because their opponents have a great starting pitcher. The problem occurs when a popular team like the Lions or Bears play against a weaker team. This is because the money line for them is often -300 or larger. With these betting odds, the favorite would need a 75%-win percentage to make it worth betting on.

Betting on popular favorite teams is not profitable on the long run. Sportsbook operators understand the public opinion of betting on popular teams. However, they also understand numbers which is why they can inflate the odds knowing that people will bet on them.

When Betting on the Run Line, Bet on the Favorite

This strategy is the complete opposite of not betting on the Money Line on a favorite team. In baseball, the scoring structure in baseball is vastly different than the other major sports. Therefore, the point spread is also different and often favors the run line.  In fact, favorite baseball teams almost always a 1.5 run favorites over underdogs.  The commission will depend on how big of favorites they are.

Instead of betting a big favorite like the Lions at -300 on the money line, consider their -1.5 run line. You are likely to find their commission with such odds being in the range of -140 to -160. This is a much more affordable approach. Just keep in mind that you do leave yourself susceptible to a loss if they win by exactly one run.

In conclusion, if you want to bet on the rub line, only bet favorites. The value one can find on underdogs is entirely gone if you take them at +1.5 runs. Instead, only bet an underdog’s money line and root for them to win outright.

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